Happy 4th of July! This newsletter includes articles about Gold on the Rise, Alzheimer’s Diagnosis & Next Steps, Plums in the Wild, and the Case of the Geranium Bandits!
July 2025
Capital Markets
The Geopolitical Gold Game
Gold has climbed nearly 80% over the past three years, with most observers crediting central bank accumulation as the primary driver — and they're not wrong. For three consecutive years, global central banks have added over 1,000 metric tons of gold to their reserves. That's a huge jump when you consider annual central bank gold demand averaged just 473 metric tons from 2010 to 2021.
While central bank buying is evident, the more intriguing question is why they’re purchasing gold at such an accelerated pace. From 2009 to 2020, gold’s price generally tracked real interest rates — falling rates fueled rallies in gold and rising rates pressured the metal. But that relationship began to break down post-pandemic, and by 2022 it had completely unraveled. A significant factor in this shift was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions, including the freezing of Russian assets. This watershed moment forced many non-Western-aligned countries to reassess the security of holding reserves in currencies and jurisdictions vulnerable to geopolitical retaliation.
Relationship Between Gold and Real Interest Rates Unravels
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 06/25/25
Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real Treasury yields are nominal, or stated, Treasury yields minus annual inflation.
In response, many of the central banks in these countries opted to diversify away from assets denominated in dollars, euros, and other developed market currencies in favor of gold. This diversification trend has been so pronounced that gold has now surpassed the euro as the second-largest reserve asset held by central banks.
Until or unless there’s a fundamental change in the global political landscape — one that convincingly mitigates the perceived risk of sovereign asset freezes — it's difficult to envision a meaningful reversal of the current trend in central bank behavior. However, what may evolve is not the drive to diversify itself, but rather the instruments chosen to achieve it. With gold having experienced such a sustained and substantial price increase in recent years, its appeal as a reserve asset might begin to wane on a relative value basis. This could open the door for central banks to explore additional avenues for diversification, including a renewed interest in other precious metals. Historically, it wasn’t uncommon for central banks to hold a broader mix of metals, and a return to that practice could have far-reaching implications for the commodity markets and global capital flows more broadly, making it a potential development worth monitoring closely over the coming quarters.
LPL Research maintains a positive view on precious metals, largely due to the array of catalysts that have supported gold’s rally year-to-date. Most global central banks have indicated they are likely to continue adding to gold reserves while reducing dollar denominated reserves in the year ahead. In addition to central bank demand, gold remains supported by a weaker dollar, trade uncertainty, and steady inflows into physical gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The potential for geopolitical tensions lingering could also act as a tailwind. However, crowded long gold positioning and high relative valuations to the S&P 500 and other commodities suggest there is risk for mean reversion from current levels.
Did You Know?
After the Diagnosis: Making a Plan for Alzheimer's
Retirement planning is all about planning today for the uncertainty of tomorrow. This type of planning requires keeping an eye out for risks that could push the plan off course. Some of the most disruptive retirement risks are related to health care and long-term care risks. Specifically, the impact of dementia and Alzheimer’s.
Alzheimer’s is the most common type of dementia. It affects more than five million people, of all ages, in the United States. However, Alzheimer’s dementia mostly effects those later in retirement, with 80 percent being age 75 or older.1 Roughly two-thirds of those over age 65 with Alzheimer’s dementia are women.2 Those who suffer from the disease develop memory, thinking, and behavior issues.3 As the disease progresses, the symptoms and challenges intensify. The Alzheimer’s Association explained:4
“As Alzheimer's advances through the brain it leads to increasingly severe symptoms, including disorientation, mood and behavior changes; deepening confusion about events, time, and place; unfounded suspicions about family, friends, and professional caregivers; more serious memory loss and behavior changes; and difficulty speaking, swallowing, and walking.”
Coping with Alzheimer’s can be an extraordinary and often painful journey for patients, families, and caregivers. If you, or someone you love, has been diagnosed with the disease, act quickly to develop a plan of action that encompasses financial, legal, and end-of-life wishes.
Creating an Alzheimer’s action plan can help restore a sense of control after an unwelcome diagnosis and help protect loved ones from potential uncertainty and conflict in the future. A good place to begin is by learning more about the disease.
Empower yourself. As you experience the gamut of emotions that often accompany a diagnosis, try to be proactive. Educate yourself about dementia and Alzheimer’s. Join a support group. Keep a journal. Share information with loved ones. Understanding what may be ahead can help re-establish a sense of order and control.5
Begin building a care team. An Alzheimer’s team may include family members, close friends, neighbors, doctors, professional caregivers, members of community organizations, and others.
Building a team means talking with potential team members about what may be needed and when. In the early stages, people with Alzheimer’s may need assistance with6
Keeping appointments
Managing money
Taking medications
Planning and organizing
Shopping and preparing meals
Exercising and relaxing
In later stages, they’ll need experienced and patient caregivers who have been well trained. If family members want to provide care, the AARP’s Dementia Friends Initiative can offer some insights about how to best interact with and support people who have dementia.7
If possible, decide on caregiving options while the individual with Alzheimer’s has the clarity to make sound decisions. The care choices you make should include a thorough evaluation of costs so you can make affordable choices.
In 2019, Genworth reported on the median annual costs for long-term care in the United States:8
Type of Long-Term Care
Length of Stay
Annual Cost
A Home Health Aid
44 hours a week for 52 weeks
$52,624
Adult Day Health Care
5 days a week for 52 weeks
$19,500
Assisted Living Facility
12 months of care, private, one bedroom
$48,612
Nursing Home Care
365 days in a semi-private room
$90,155
Nursing Home Care
365 days in a private room
$102,200
Another option may be a dementia village. The first was established in the Netherlands. Villages rely on reminiscence therapy – using past activities and experiences to encourage positive memories and help people with dementia feel calmer.3
These village and specialty style care facilities continue to grow in popularity as awareness and research around the treatment of dementia improves. Traditional care facilities can be confusing, based on layout and similar looks of all hallways and rooms. Slight changes to layouts and rooms can help patients navigate life better.
Review your financial plans. Once you have familiarized yourself with care options, take time to review your financial plans. Check in with your insurance provider to ascertain exactly what costs will be paid by insurance and what costs will be paid out of pocket.
Once you have a better understanding of potential costs, work with your financial representative to evaluate your budget and decide how to proceed. If your financial priorities and goals have changed, then your investment and allocation choices should reflect that.
Double-check legal documents. Make sure you’ve dotted the ‘i’s’ and crossed the ‘t’s’ when it comes to your estate plan. Make sure to review:
Your will. Make sure you have named the correct beneficiaries for your valuables and guardians for children and also have provisions in place for pets.9
Beneficiary designations. In many cases, the beneficiaries named on retirement plan accounts and insurance policies take precedence over heirs named in a will, so make sure the correct person or people are named.9
Your living will or advance directive.This legal document provides instructions that are implemented if you are unable to communicate or make decisions. An advance directive may include end-of-life wishes.10
Your Power of Attorneygives another person the right to act on your behalf if you become incapacitated.11
Your digital executor. Almost everyone now owns digital assets. This could be emails, digital currencies, or just online accounts at places like Amazon. Most state laws require special clauses in wills, trusts, and other legal documents to provide for the management of digital assets. Make sure all of your estate planning documents are up to date and that the documents name a digital executor to access, manage, delete, or archive digital files after your death.12
Any trusts. Depending on the complexity of your estate, you may have established a trust and a means for funding it after death.
Put critical financial documents in a safe place, and make sure at least one other trusted individual knows where they are.
Apply for Social Security Disability benefits. It has become easier for people who are younger than age 65 to qualify for benefits than it once was. Early-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease was added to the Social Security Administration’s Compassionate Allowances List.13
Alzheimer’s is the most expensive disease in America, according to CNBC.3 It’s critical to put a plan in place to help provide comfort and care for the person with Alzheimer’s and protect family and loved ones.
Hanging out with us in the Plum Tree!
Plums in the Wild - Adventures Beyond the Desk
Because getting outside is always in season!
Celebrating June’s Great Outdoors Month - Even though June’s Great Outdoors Month has wrapped up, at PlumTree Financial we appreciate how lucky we are to have a team that genuinely values nature, movement, and moments outside. Whether it is a serene walk in the neighborhood or an adrenaline-pumping ski run, our team finds joy and renewal in the great outdoors—and we are excited to share some of their favorite ways to get out and explore! From coastlines to creek trails, gardens to golf courses, we asked our team to share their favorite ways to enjoy the great outdoors. Here is what they said:
Greg knows how to make every season an outdoor season. He enjoys skiing in Steamboat, CO., fishing along the Gulf Coast of Florida, hiking with his dog, Dargan, through the Shenandoah Valley, VA., traveling with family, and last, but certainly not least, golfing whenever and wherever possible.
Gregor, much like his dad, loves the outdoors too! His favorites include skiing in Steamboat, CO., snorkeling in the turquoise waters of Trunk Bay, St. John USVI, and biking around the Town of Vienna, VA. - proof that adventure runs in the family!
Susie finds her outdoor happy place on the golf course—specifically Creighton Farms in Virginia, where she loves teeing off with friends and family. The views are stunning, and the course is a real challenge, just the way she likes it!
Brock thrives in and around the water. You will find him fishing from a kayak off Fripp Island, SC., surfing, boating, and most importantly, winning pickleball matches (we are guessing with a big smile and a competitive streak!).
Sabrina is all about thoughtful exploration. She has recently taken up bird watching in Sligo Creek in Maryland—binoculars and all! On weekends, she loves running the Rock Creek Trail toward DC and finishing with a well-earned coffee and pastry. Her most memorable hike? Big Sur, CA.—stunning coastal cliffs and all.
Kathy finds peace and purpose in the outdoors. She enjoys gardening, exploring new walking paths in her neighborhood, and hiking beautiful spots like Great Falls, the New River Trail, Bull Run-Occoquan, and nearby lakes. For Kathy, time outdoors is rejuvenating—for both body and mind.
Kelly is happiest in her backyard sanctuary—her patio. But she also enjoys visiting Rehoboth Beach, DE., playing in the snow with her pup, Clark, gardening, and volunteering to give back to her community —a great reminder that giving back is one of the most meaningful ways to spend time outside.
As a team, we are united by our appreciation for the great outdoors and all the experiences it brings. From coast to coast, forests to fairways, and backyard patios to mountain peaks, we are grateful for the chance to explore, relax, connect—and celebrate the world outside our windows. Here is to summer skies, open trails, and more outdoor memories ahead.
Happy July!.
Plum Picks: Where Petals Meet Passports
Wanted: The Geranium Bandits!
Twinkle and Birch, two mischievous baby deer, have been sneaking into Greg's yard in the early morning hours to feast on his freshly planted red geraniums. Though caught in the act once, they quickly vanished without a trace. Have you spotted the bandits? If so, contact us immediately! Stay tuned—future newsletters will uncover their next move.
Have a story to tell, a garden tip to share, or a favorite travel memory in full bloom? We would love to feature you! If you would like to be a guest contributor, please reach out to clients@plumtreefinancial.com. Let us grow this community from the ground up.
Upcoming Events
August 24, 2025 |1pm - 4pm EST
Save the Date for TOPGOLF!
Client and Family Appreciation event.
More details to follow!
“Warm summer sun, Shine kindly here. Warm southern wind, Blow softly here. Green sod above, Lie light, lie light. Good night, dear heart, Good night, good night."
- Mark Twain poem, Warm Summer Sun
Prospector, Businessman, Typesetter, Riverboat Pilot, Journalist, Author, Lecturer, and Publisher
Mark Twain was a pen name Samuel Langhorne Clemens adopted in early 1863 when he was a newspaperman in Nevada. The term "Mark Twain" referred to measuring water depth and indicated a depth of two fathoms, or 12 feet.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
Asset Class Disclosures –
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.
Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union
Guaranteed | May Lose Value
Tracking #759870
LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2025 Webinar
Webinar Overview based on "Midyear Outlook 2025 Coming Soon - Economy and Equities Preview"
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third-party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
Asset Class Disclosures –
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.
Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value
