September is a month of movement—potential Capital Markets shifts in September, education and insights gleaned from the LPL Focus Conference, a lively client appreciation day at Topgolf, and a team Step Challenge that will keep us all on our toes!
Life Insurance Awareness Month, observed every September, is dedicated to educating individuals about the importance of life insurance in securing their family's financial future. We are here to help guide you—ask us your questions and let us assist you in finding the right solution to support your family.
September 2025
Capital Markets
So Long Sweet Summer: A Closer Look at September Seasonals
Adam Turnquist | Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Financial
Last Updated: August 28, 2025
As summer winds down, many Americans experience a mix of emotions — saying goodbye to backyard barbecues, beach outings, camping trips, and rounds of golf, while welcoming cooler temperatures, the back-to-school season, and weekends filled with football. Similarly, the financial markets often shift gears in September, moving away from the quiet summer months marked by low trading volumes and limited volatility, and entering a period historically associated with seasonal weakness and increased market instability.
Of course, seasonal trends should always be viewed with caution — they reflect the broader market climate, not the current market conditions. To help frame the seasonal setup for September, here are five key takeaways on typical price action during the month:
September is the worst month for stocks. Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has posted an average return of -0.7% in September, making it the worst performing month for stocks. When September finished in the red, the average loss was -3.8%. This compares to the average gain of 3.2% when September was higher. Using the “you’re only as good as your last at bat” analogy, the S&P 500 has only finished higher on the month during one out of the last five years and generated an average decline of 1.4% over this period.
Fewer than half of September’s returns over the last 75 years have been positive. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has only posted positive returns in September 44% of the time, marking the lowest positivity rate for any month across the calendar. February’s 54% positivity rate ranks as a distant second.
The trend is your friend when it comes to September. As we alluded to earlier, seasonal data represents the typical climate for stocks but not the weather. And currently, the weather for the S&P 500 is filled with blue skies and record highs. When accounting for momentum and trend, which we believe is much-needed context, September doesn’t look so bad. For example, when the S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average (dma) going into September, the average price return for the month jumps to 1.3%, with 60% of occurrences producing positive results. This compares to an average September price decline of 4.2% and positivity rate of only 15% when the index is below its 200-dma going into the month.
S&P 500 September Seasonality Scenarios (1950-YTD)
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 08/27/25
Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of the predecessor index, the S&P 90.
Implied volatility tends to peak in September. Stocks finished at record highs yesterday [8/27/28], and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed near year-to-date lows. Given the market-moving events of NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings, this Friday’s [8/29/28] Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, next week’s employment report, and a highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September, maybe this low-volatility backdrop represents the calm before the storm. As highlighted below, the VIX has historically advanced going into the fall, with a high-water mark for the year typically reached in late September or early October. Considering the relatively low starting point of the so-called fear gauge right now (spot VIX closed at 14.85 on August 27, for reference), we don’t think it is a bold call to suggest there is upside risk to the VIX, especially given the macro backdrop, looming event risk over the next month, and 98th percentile speculative short positions in futures.
Implied Volatility Tends to Ramp Up into the Fall
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 08/27/25
Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and can’t be invested in directly.
There is a silver lining to September weakness. As the saying goes, with volatility comes opportunity, and the October to December time frame has historically provided a steady stream of above-average returns in the equity market. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has generated an average annual gain of 4.2% and finished higher 80% of the time over this period. This impressive three-month return window comes in as a close second to the S&P 500’s average gain of 4.4% from November through January.
Summary
September could live up to its reputation of being turbulent for stocks. However, history has shown that when the broader market is trending higher into the month, seasonal weakness has not necessarily been a factor. Furthermore, if the market does suffer a drawdown, seasonal headwinds turn back into tailwinds in October. Finally, while seasonality may be an ancillary factor influencing market performance, other more powerful macroeconomic forces, such as the health of the overall economy and corporate America, ultimately drive future equity market performance.
Did You Know?
LPL FOCUS 2025
Innovation, Inspiration, and Industry Impact
Greg Bernhard attended LPL Financial's largest-ever Focus conference, held from August 10–13, 2025, at the San Diego Convention Center. The event welcomed over 10,000 financial professionals and centered around the theme "What If You Could?", encouraging advisors to reimagine possibilities within their practices.
The event featured over 220 breakout sessions, a 130-partner expo, and keynotes from inspirational figures including Paralympian Melissa Stockwell and actress Anna Kendrick. Mentalist Lior Suchard closed the conference with an interactive performance.
Focus 2025 highlighted LPL’s continued investment in technology, branding, and support—reinforcing its mission to empower financial professionals across the country. Many of the innovations and enhancements presented at the conference are planned for implementation at our office to better serve our clients and improve overall efficiency.
Hanging out with us in the Plum Tree!
Swinging Into Gratitude
A Recap of Our Topgolf Client Appreciation Event!
At PlumTree Financial, we believe strong financial partnerships are built on trust, communication—and a little fun, too!
That is why we were thrilled to host our Client Appreciation Family Event at Topgolf in Loudoun, VA on Sunday, August 24, 2025. The event brought together a fantastic mix of longtime clients and new faces for an afternoon full of good conversation, friendly competition, and great food.
The weather was perfect, the energy was high, and the swings were... well, let us just say we saw everything from power drives to graceful misses (and we loved every moment of it).
Guests enjoyed private bays, a fajita buffet, children's finger food, and beverages while engaging in friendly competition and connecting with both the team and fellow clients. But the real crowd favorite? Injectable doughnut holes—a hands-on treat where guests chose their own filling (chocolate or raspberry jam) and took dessert into their own hands (literally).
We truly missed those who were unable to attend. Events like these remind us just how grateful we are to work with such an incredible community of clients. The feedback from attendees has been overwhelmingly positive, with many expressing appreciation for the opportunity to connect with both advisors and fellow clients in such an enjoyable environment.
We look forward to more opportunities to celebrate and connect in the future and thank you for being a part of the PlumTree Financial family.
Plum Picks: Where Petals Meet Passports
Step Into September Challenge!
Ready to boost your health and have a little fun this fall? Join PlumTree Financial's September Step Challenge! Whether you are walking around the block or hitting the trails, every step counts.
September is Self-Improvement Month, making it the perfect time to set goals, get moving, and prioritize your well-being. Let us step into fall feeling stronger, healthier, and more motivated than ever!
The Plums are excited to be part of the September Step Challenge and will be stepping right alongside you every step of the way!
How the Challenge Works:
Track Your Steps Daily: Use your phone, smartwatch, or any step-tracking app (like Apple Health, Google Fit, Fitbit, etc.).
Submit Weekly Totals: At the end of each week, submit your total steps using our simple online form, which we will email onFriday, September 5th. If you miss a week, no worries - just keep stepping and jump back in!
Keep It Going All Month: We will track weekly entries and give shoutouts to our top steppers!
Prizes:
Top steppers will be entered to win a prize — details revealed soon!
Challenge Dates:
September 1st – September 30th
Submit Your Steps:
Use the online form which will be provided on Friday, September 5th.
Deadline to submit weekly totals:
Sunday at 11:59 PM each week. If you miss a week, no worries - just keep stepping and jump back in!
We are falling into the ‘Gram just in time for September — come be our first followers!
"Happily we bask in this warm September sun, which illuminates all creatures..."
“I am a Schoolmaster–a Private Tutor, a Surveyor–a Gardener, a Farmer–a Painter, I mean a House Painter, a Carpenter, a Mason, a Day-Laborer, a Pencil-Maker, a Glass-paper Maker, a Writer, and sometimes a Poetaster [inferior poet]”
— Henry David Thoreau
Disclosures
So Long Sweet Summer: A Closer Look at September Seasonals
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
Asset Class Disclosures –
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.
Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union
Guaranteed | May Lose Value
For Public Use – Tracking: #789635
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC. Insurance products offered through LPL Financial or its licensed affiliates.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, PlumTree Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
